Comments on: Predictions for 2009

By: GregM

GregM — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 19:30:27 +0000

I think #4 from Dismuke and #5 from Inspector will go hand in hand. Networks and newspapers are next in line for bailouts.

By: Roger Theriault

Roger Theriault — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:13:27 +0000

Just one prediction. When the price of oil bottoms out in the first half of 2009, and when gas prices fall accordingly, Obama will propose, and get passed, a huge increase in the federal gas tax – around 50 or 75 cents per gallon. The increase will be justified by, and “earmarked” for, infrastructure improvements, but it will really just go into the general fund to mitigate some of the monetary disasters looming on the medium- and long-range horizons. No one will protest, because, even after the increase, the price of gas won’t be anywhere near the four-dollar-a-gallon level of mid-2008. This will pass before the end of 2009.

By: Jim May

Jim May — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:48:18 +0000

Chuck: they are indeed wishing, not predicting. They did the same thing in the 1970’s. I predict that we’ll be hearing plenty more of that crap for a decade.

My second prediction — and I’ve put money on this one — is that once gold clears $1000 an ounce late in the year, it will never be seen south of there again.

By: Galileo Blogs

Galileo Blogs — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:14:25 +0000

I will throw in one, rather concrete prediction: oil will reach a bottom between $20 and $30 during the first half of 2009.

I am reminded of when oil bottomed below $10 per barrel in 1998 or 1999. I will just add in some price inflation to that level and get an equivalent bottom in the above range.

Admittedly, the factors are quite different between then and now. Back then, dis-inflation had been prevalent, with gold dropping below $300 per ounce. Today it is over $800 per ounce. Moreover, the economy was strong back then. The cheap oil price then was a function of the strengthened purchasing power of the dollar, whereas a cheap oil price now is a result of recession and a slackened demand for oil. Our dollars are debased, which would argue for a higher price of oil, but demand has been curtailed.

This is kind of an easy prediction (I give myself a large range). We shall see…

To make it a full year prediction, I will say that at year-end 2009, oil will be trading in the $30-$80 range.

By: Chuck

Chuck — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 09:30:27 +0000

There are no shortage of America haters abroad making predictions of our impending doom. All of these types take for granted that we are in a death spiral from which there is no escape.

One Russian charater predicted civil war in America in 2010, with the US breaking up into six different zones, each under some other country’s influence, e.g., the Midwest section under Canadian influence, the Northeast under European influence, the Southwest under Mexican influence, Alaska under Russian influence (they want that oil), and the West under Chinese influence.

This is of course just wishful thinking on the part of the enemies of freedom and civilization. These predictions come from people who see the economic world as a zero sum game, in which they want to grab a bigger piece of the pie while the getting’s good.

Instead, they should be promoting capitalism and individual rights for all, like a rational human being.